IDC cuts growth forecast for global PC market
PC market will only grow by 0.9% in 2012
IDC is predicting that the global PC market will only grow by 0.9% this year, as shipments slowed mid-year due to poor economic conditions and the launch of Windows 8.
The analyst company expects a total of 367 million PCs to ship in 2012, marking the second consecutive year of growth under 2%.
Mature markets are expected to decline by 1.2% in 2012, while emerging markets, which IDC defines as Asia Pacific (excluding Japan), Latin America, Central and Eastern Africa, Middle East and Africa, slowing growth in Asia Pacific will mean growth of just 2.5%
The launch of Windows 8 and the emergence of Ultrabooks mean that consumers are not spending on PCs, and the segment also faces consumer competition from devices such as smartphones and tablets. IDC expects growth to return towards the end of the year, but it will be in a more competitive environment.
"IDC remains optimistic that PC penetration opportunities in emerging markets will form the bulwark of the market and help sustain double-digit Portable PC growth in the long run. However, a host of all-too-familiar variables will lead to a subdued second half of the year with only consumer notebooks remaining in growth mode for all of 2012," said Jay Chou, senior research analyst with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.
"Factors such as Windows 8 coupled with Ultrabooks could present a positive turn of events next year, but it also faces some initial hurdles; chief of which is that buyers must acclimate themselves to an operating system that is a dramatic departure from existing PC paradigms. The PC ecosystem faces some work to properly educate the market," he added.
IDC has cut its long-term forecast for the market, from a compound annual growth rate of 8.4% predicted for 2012 to 2016, down to 7.1% for the period, as business and consumer caution is likely to remain through the medium and long term.
For emerging markets, desktop PC growth will be down 1.5% in 2012, while notebooks will be up 6%. By 2016, the desktop PC market in emerging markets will have reached 107.9 million, while notebooks will account for 195.5 million units.