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Cisco releases VNI forecast results

Middle East, Africa region will see eight-fold growth in IP traffic from 2010 to 2015

Cisco releases VNI forecast results
Cisco has released the results of its VNI Forecast, which projects that the internet will be four times larger by 2016.

Cisco has released the results of its annual Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast (2011-2016), an ongoing initiative to forecast and analyse Internet Protocol (IP) networking growth and trends worldwide.

According to the Forecast IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow 8-fold from 2010 to 2015, a compound annual growth rate of 52%, and the region's IP traffic in 2015 will be equivalent to six billion DVDs per year, 505 million DVDs per month, or 691,466 DVDs per hour.

In 2015, the gigabyte equivalent of all movies ever made will cross Middle East and Africa's IP networks every three hours.

The MEA region will also see internet traffic grow nine-fold from 2010 to 2015; a compound annual growth rate of 56%, a 13-fold growth in peak internet traffic from 2010 to 2015 and internet traffic in the region in 2015 will be equivalent to 98x the volume of the entire Middle Eastern and African internet in 2005.

Average internet traffic in the region will reach 5 Tbps in 2015, the equivalent of 4,500,000 people streaming Internet HD video simultaneously and hour internet traffic will reach 17 Tbps in 2015, the equivalent of 13,890,000 people streaming internet HD video simultaneously.

"Times are certainly changing with VNI data projecting that there will be 72m internet households generating more than 200 gigabytes per month in 2016, and 19 billion networked devices. The network is more important today than any time in history, as more and more people rely on it everyday to live their lives and run their businesses," said Rabih Dabboussi, general manager, Cisco UAE

The VNI Forecast update covers 2011-2016, and quantitatively projects the significant amount of IP traffic expected to travel public and private networks, including internet, managed IP, and mobile data traffic generated by consumers and business users.

This high level of traffic growth and service penetration is driven by primary number of factors, including an increasing number of devices.

The proliferation of tablets, mobile phones, and other smart devices as well as machine-to-machine (M2M) connections are driving up the demand for connectivity. By 2016, there will be nearly 18.9bn network connections - almost 2.5 connections for each person on earth - compared with 10.3bn in 2011

More internet users is also driving internet growth, by 2016, there will 3.4bn internet users ─ about 45% of the world's projected population according to United Nations estimates.

Faster broadband speeds, more video and Wi-Fi growth are also driving the internet boom.

The fastest-growing IP-traffic regions for the forecast period (2011 - 2016) are the Middle East and Africa (58% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), for ten-fold growth), and Latin America (49%CAGR, seven-fold growth).

Globally, there will be 1.5bn internet video users by 2016, up from 792m internet video users in 2011.

According to the Cisco report, by 2016, there will be nearly 18.9bn network connections - almost 2.5 connections for each person on earth.

In 2011, PCs generated 94% of consumer internet traffic. This contribution will fall to 81% by 2016-demonstrating the impact that an increasing number and variety of devices like tablets, smartphones, etc. are having on how consumers and businesses access and use the Internet.

By 2016, TVs will account for over 6% of global consumer internet traffic (up from 4% in 2011), and 18% of Internet video traffic (up from 7% in 2011) -demonstrating the impact of web-enabled TVs as a viable online option for many consumers.

Globally, there will be 8bn IPv6-capable fixed and mobile devices in 2016, up from 1bn in 2011.

Globally, 40% of all fixed and mobile networked devices will be IPv6-capable in 2016, up from 10% in 2011.

Global advanced video traffic, including three-dimensional (3-D) and high-definition TV (HDTV), is projected to increase five times between 2011 and 2016 and global mobile internet data traffic will increase 18 times from 2011 to 2016, to 10.8 exabytes per month (or 130 exabytes annually).

By 2016, global peer-to-peer traffic will account for 54% of global consumer internet file sharing traffic, down from 77% in 2011. On a quantity basis, however, the amount of peer-to-peer traffic is increasing from 4.6 exabytes per month in 2011 to 10 exabytes per month by 2016.

Business IP video conferencing is projected to grow six fold over the forecast period, growing more than two times as fast as overall business IP traffic, at a CAGR of 42% from 2011 to 2016.

Globally, business internet users will grow from 1.6bn in 2011 to 2.3bn by 2016, desktop videoconferencing will be the fastest-growing service, with 36.4m users in 2011, increasing to 218.9m users in 2016, and business mobile location-based services (LBS) will be the fastest-growing business mobile service, with 27m user in 2011, increasing to 158m users by 2016.

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