Cisco predicts 15b connected devices by 2015

Company says global internet traffic will increase exponentially

Tags: Cisco Systems Incorporated
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Cisco predicts 15b connected devices by 2015 Cisco has revealed that it expects 15b conencted devices by 2015.
By  Georgina Enzer Published  June 14, 2011

Cisco has predicted that the number of connected devices will swell to over 15 billion by 2015, double the number of people in the world and global internet traffic will quadruple to 966 exabytes per year in 2015.

These predictions were made in the fifth annual Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast (2010-2015) released this week.

Cisco has said that between 2014 and 2015 internet traffic will increase by 200 exabytes which is greater than the total amount of Internet Protocol traffic that was generated globally in 2010.

Internet traffic will be on the verge of reaching 1 zettabyte, equal to a sextillion bytes, or a trillion gigabytes by 2015, the company says.

Global IP traffic growth is driven by four primary factors, according to Cisco. The first of these factors is an increasing number of devices driven by the proliferation of tablets, mobile phones, connected appliances and other smart machines which drives up the demand for connectivity.

The second factor is more internet users, set to reach nearly three billion by 2015, more than 40% of the world's projected population.

Faster broadband speeds are the third factor. The average fixed broadband speed is expected to increase four-fold, from 7 Mbps in 2010 to 28 Mbps in 2015. The average broadband speed has already doubled within the past year from 3.5 Mbps to 7 Mbps.

The fourth factor is that in 2015 there will be more video, one million video minutes - which is the equivalent of 674 days - will traverse the internet every second, according to Cisco. 

"The explosive growth in internet data traffic, especially video, creates an opportunity in the years ahead for optimizing and monetising visual, virtual and mobile internet experiences. As architect of the next-generation internet, Cisco stands ready to help our customers not only accommodate this rapid expansion of Internet activity through the evolution of their networks but also help them thrive as a result of it," said Suraj Shetty, vice president of worldwide service provider marketing, Cisco.

Cisco has also revealed that global IP traffic is expected to reach 80.5 exabytes per month by 2015, up from approximately 20.2 exabytes per month in 2010.

Average global IP traffic in 2015 will reach 245 terabytes per second, equivalent to 200 million people streaming an HD movie (1.2 Mbps) simultaneously every day.

Also by 2015, the Asia Pacific region will generate the most IP traffic (24.1 exabytes per month), surpassing last year's leader, North America (22.3 exabytes per month), for the top spot.

The Middle East and Africa region will continue to be the fastest-growing IP-traffic region for the forecast period 2010 - 2015. MENA saw 52% compound annual growth rate, for an eightfold growth, surpassing last year's leader Latin America with 48% CAGR, sevenfold growth.

Cisco has also predicted that the global online video community will increase by approximately 500 million users by 2015, up from more than one billion internet video users in 2010.

PC internet traffic will fall from 97% of consumer internet traffic to 87% by 2015, due to the increasing impact devices such as tablets, smartphones and connected TVs.

Ten percent of global consumer internet traffic and 18% of internet video traffic will be consumed via TVs.

Global advanced video traffic, including 3-D and HDTV, is projected to increase 14 times between 2010 and 2015, according to Cisco.

The company has also predicted that global mobile internet data traffic will increase 26 times from 2010 to 2015, to 6.3 exabytes per month or 75 exabytes annually and global file sharing will account for 16% of global consumer internet traffic, down from 40% in 2010.

Business IP video conferencing is also set to grow, with a sixfold increase expected over the forecast period.

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