Gartner's predictions for hardware markets in 2002

Gartner research has come up with a series of predictions for PC, PDA and storage markets in 2002.

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By  Guy Mathew Published  January 2, 2002

Gartner research has come up with a series of predictions for hardware markets in 2002. The analyst house believes that hardware vendors are likely to have a hard time during the next twelve months due to competition, declining margins and the lack of technological reasons for upgrading equipment.

The prediction the company assigns the highest probability to is that it will be lifecycle issues that lead to PC upgrades next year rather than technology. “The worldwide PC market is expected to decline for the first time since 1986. Revenue growth in 2002 is expected to decline by 18%, or 6.8% in unit terms. There is no compelling new technology to force users into early upgrades,” says analyst Leslie Fiering, author of the report entitled Hardware Platform Market Predictions 2002.

The report goes on to say that it expects Intel to have difficulties if the expected consolidation takes place as it will not be able to continue using a “divide and conquer” policy with PC makers. However it also says that by the end of the year Intel-based servers will outperform RISC-based servers in revenue terms.

Other predictions include the suggestion that by the end of 2002 75% of US businesses will have at least piloted wireless LAN technology. The report also suggests that by Q3 there will be fully-integrated wireless PDAs on the market and that the market will see massive price cuts to the end-user as there are some 20 vendors fighting for a piece of the action at the moment. “It is vital to focus on compelling industrial design at competitive prices. Good enterprise applications, along with strong solution partners will be the key to survival,” says Fiering.

In other markets storage management software is tipped to be a big growth area. “As companies have realised back-up is not an optional purchase, they need to know how best to manage their available storage,” Fiering concludes.

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